The Effect of Inflation, Economic Freedom, and Exports on Economic Growth in ASEAN Countries: An ARDL Panel Analysis

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the short-term and long-term effects of inflation, economic freedom, and export variables on economic growth in ASEAN countries in the period 1999-2023. This study uses a quantitative approach with panel data-based Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. Data processing is done using Eviews 12 software in the time span of 1999 to 2023. The research data sources came from the official websites of the World Bank and Heritage Foundation. The results showed that the inflation variable in the long term has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while in the short term in the current period and in one and two previous periods inflation has a positive and significant effect, while in the previous three periods, it has a negative and insignificant effect on economic growth. Economic freedom variables in the long term have a negative and significant effect on economic growth, while in the short term the current period and in the previous two periods have a positive and significant effect, while in the previous one and three periods economic freedom has a positive and insignificant effect on economic growth. The export variable in the long term has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while in the short term in one and three previous periods it has a negative and insignificant effect, and in two previous periods it has a positive and insignificant effect on economic growth.