The Effect of Export-Import Ratio, Human Development Index (HDI), and Labor on Income Inequality in Five Asean Countries with GDP as a Moderating Variable

Abstract

The economic growth of ASEAN countries faces the ongoing challenge of income inequality despite increasing regional economic integration. International trade through export-import activities plays a role in promoting growth but does not necessarily ensure equitable income distribution. On the other hand, human capital quality and labor absorption are crucial factors in fostering inclusive development. This study aims to examine the effect of the Export-Import Ratio, Human Development Index (IPM), and Labor on Income Inequality in five ASEAN countries, and whether Gross Domestic Product (GDP) moderates these relationships over the period of 2011–2022. This research uses a descriptive quantitative method, utilizing secondary data in a panel data analysis approach. The study applies Panel Data Regression and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) with the help of Eviews 12 software. The findings of this research indicate that: (1) the export-import ratio has a positive and significant effect on income inequality in the five ASEAN countries; (2) the Human Development Index (IPM) has a negative but insignificant effect on income inequality; (3) labor force has a negative but insignificant effect on income inequality; (4) the export-import ratio, IPM, and labor force collectively have a significant effect on income inequality; (5) GDP does not moderate the relationship between the export-import ratio and income inequality; (6) GDP moderates the relationship between IPM and income inequality by weakening the effect; and (7) GDP moderates the relationship between labor force and income inequality by weakening the effect.