Perencanaan Jumlah Produksi dengan Menggunakan Metode Forecasting dalam Menentukan Permintaan Crude Palm Oil (CPO) di PT. X
| Authors | ||
| Issue | Vol 6 No 1 (2023): Talenta Conference Series: Energy and Engineering (EE) | |
| Section | Articles | |
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Copyright (c) 2023 Talenta Conference Series: Energy and Engineering (EE)  This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. |
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| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.32734/ee.v6i1.1791 | |
| Keywords: | Peramalan Jumlah Produksi CPO Forecasting Total Production | |
| Published | 2023-10-20 |
Abstract
X adalah perusahaan yang mengolah kelapa sawit menjadi crude palm oil Kelapa sawit diolah akan disalurkan langsung ke kebun milik perusahaan sendiri serta dari kebun milik masyarakat. PT. X menghasilkan dua jenis produk yaitu crude palm oil dan palm kernel. Pemasaran produk yang dilakukan PT. X adalah make to stock. Kenyataannya PT. X tidak melakukan perhitungan perkiraan jumlah permintaan konsumn dan pabrik selalu memproduksi CPO sesuai dengan seberapa jumlah bahan baku masuk. Sehingga, didapati jumlah CPO yang Asam Lemak Bebas (ALB) meningkat. Oleh karenanya dilakukan perkiraan jumlah produksi dengan peramalan permintaan di mana hasil peramalan akan dipakai sebagai dasar jumlah produksi CPO ke depannya. Peramalan permintaan CPO didasarkan dengan data masa lalu produksi CPO satu tahun yang lalu. Peramalan dilakukan dengan time series menggunakan metode linier dan kuadratis. Hasil peramalan menunjukkan metode kuadratis terpilih karena memiliki nilai error paling kecil pada metode The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) sebesar sebesar 14,92%.
PT. X is a company that processes palm oil into crude palm oil. Processed palm oil will be distributed directly to the company's own plantations as well as from the community's plantations. PT. X produces two types of products, namely crude palm oil and palm kernel. Product marketing by PT. X is make to stock. In fact PT. X does not calculate the estimated amount of consumer demand and factories always produce CPO according to how much raw material comes in. Thus, it was found that the amount of CPO with Free Fatty Acid (ALB) increased. Therefore, an estimate of the amount of production is carried out with demand forecasting where the forecasting results will be used as the basis for the amount of future CPO production. CPO demand forecasting is based on past CPO production data one year ago. Forecasting is done by time series using linear and quadratic methods. Forecasting results show that the quadratic method was chosen because it has the smallest error value in The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method of 14.92%.
