Analisis Penerapan Peramalan Permintaan di UMKM Keripik

Abstract

Peramalan adalah kombinasi antara seni dan ilmu yang digunakan untuk memproyeksikan peristiwa di masa mendatang. Tujuannya adalah memberikan informasi yang menjadi dasar dalam pengambilan keputusan manajemen operasional dengan memperkirakan permintaan di masa depan. UMKM Keripik yang berlokasi di Jl. Serayu I, No. 206, Medan Krio, Kec. Sunggal, Kab. Deli Serdang, Medan mengalami kekurangan persediaan produk jadi saat adanya permintaan konsumen sehingga untuk memenuhi permintaan tersebut konsumen harus menunggu yang berakibat permintaan tidak dapat dipenuhi tepat waktu. Sehingga dilakukan peramalan berdasarkan data perminaan 12 periode sebelumnya dengan metode kuadratis dan siklis. Pada penelitian ini menggunakan metode error MSE dan SEE dan didapat bahwa metode kuadratis merupakan metode dengan nilai error terkecil yaitu MSE sebesar 162.224,5336 dan SEE sebesar 147,0806. Menggunakan metode kuadratis didapat hasil peramalan selama 12 periode yang akan datang yaitu periode ke-13 sebanyak 693 kg, periode ke-14 sebanyak 755 kg, periode ke-15 sebanyak 820 kg, peride ke-16 sebanyak 890 kg, periode ke-17 sebanyak 963 kg, periode ke-18 sebanyak 1041 kg, periode ke-19 sebanyak 1122 kg, periode ke-20 sebanyak 1207 kg, periode ke-21 sebanyak 1297 kg, periode ke-22 sebanyak 1390 kg, periode ke-23 sebanyak 1487 kg, dan peride ke-24 sebanyak 1588 kg.

Forecasting is the art and science of forecasting future events as basic inputs in the decision-making process of operations management because forecasting provides information in future requests. The chip MSMEs located on Jl. Serayu I, No. 206, Medan Krio, Kec. Sunggal, Kab. Deli Serdang, Medan experienced a shortage of finished product inventory when there was consumer demand so that to meet this demand consumers had to wait which resulted in demand could not be met on time. So that forecasting is carried out Based on the previous 12 periods of request data by the quadratic and cyclical methods. In this study using the method error MSE and SEE and it is found that the quadratic method is a method with values error the smallest were MSE at 162,224.5336 and SEE at 147.0806. Using the quadratic method, the forecasting results were obtained for the next 12 periods, namely the 13th period as much as 693 kg, the 14th period as much as 755 kg, the 15th period as much as 820 kg, the 16th peride as much as 890 kg, the 17th period as much as 963 kg, the 18th period as much as 1041 kg, the 19th period as much as 1122 kg, the 20th period as much as 1207 kg, the 21st period as many as 1297 kg, the 22nd period was 1390 kg, the 23rd period was 1487 kg, and the 24th period was 1588 kg.